There are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.
31 SSB JALANDHAR
India and China, two of the world's largest economies and most populous nations, share a complex relationship marked by cooperation, competition, and conflict. Over the last decade, their bilateral ties have undergone significant shifts due to geopolitical developments, border disputes, economic dynamics, and strategic alignments. While both nations have sought to expand trade and diplomatic engagement, tensions have escalated over territorial issues and China's growing influence in South Asia.
Key Developments in India-China Relations (2015–2025)
1. Border Disputes and Security Concerns
- Doklam Standoff (2017): The military confrontation at the tri-junction between India, Bhutan, and China marked a turning point in bilateral relations. India opposed China's road construction in the disputed area, leading to heightened tensions.
- Galwan Valley Clash (2020): The violent clash in Ladakh resulted in casualties on both sides, severely straining relations. It was the first deadly border conflict between the two nations in decades.
- Military Build-Up: Post-Galwan, both countries increased troop deployments and infrastructure development along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), signaling a prolonged strategic standoff.
2. Economic Engagement
- Trade Growth: Despite political tensions, India-China trade has grown significantly over the last decade. In 2023-24, bilateral trade reached approximately $135 billion, with China remaining India's largest trading partner.
- Trade Imbalance: India's trade deficit with China has widened, crossing $100 billion in 2024 due to heavy imports of Chinese electronics, machinery, and chemicals.
- Economic Decoupling Efforts: India has sought to reduce dependence on Chinese imports by promoting domestic manufacturing under initiatives like "Make in India" and imposing restrictions on Chinese investments in sensitive sectors.
3. Strategic Rivalry
- China's Influence in South Asia:
- China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded its presence in India's neighborhood through infrastructure projects in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
- The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), remains a major point of contention for India.
- India's Countermeasures:
- Strengthening ties with Quad nations (USA, Japan, Australia) to counter China's dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Enhanced defense partnerships with Russia and France to modernize India's military capabilities.
4. Global Geopolitical Shifts
- COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2022): The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains dominated by China. India capitalized on this by positioning itself as an alternative manufacturing hub.
- Russia-Ukraine War (2022): Both nations maintained neutral stances but diverged on their approaches to Western sanctions. India's closer ties with the West contrasted with China's alignment with Russia.
- BRICS Expansion (2023): India and China collaborated to expand BRICS membership to include nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE. However, differences persisted over leadership roles within the bloc.
5. Technological Competition
- Digital Decoupling:
- In 2020, India banned over 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok and PUBG Mobile, citing national security concerns after the Galwan clash.
- Efforts to develop indigenous alternatives like "Atmanirbhar Bharat" apps gained momentum.
- Semiconductor Race: Both nations are competing for dominance in semiconductor manufacturing as global demand surges.
Challenges in Bilateral Relations
1. Territorial Disputes:
- The unresolved border issue remains a major obstacle to normalizing relations. China's claims over Arunachal Pradesh and its activities near the LAC continue to provoke tensions.
2. Trust Deficit:
- Incidents like Galwan have deepened mistrust between the two nations, making diplomatic resolutions difficult.
3. China's Support for Pakistan:
- China's close ties with Pakistan remain a thorn in India-China relations, particularly regarding military aid and infrastructure projects under CPEC.
4. Economic Dependence:
- Despite efforts at decoupling, India's reliance on Chinese imports for critical sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals persists.
Opportunities for Cooperation
1. Climate Change:
- Both nations are major emitters of greenhouse gases but share common goals under global agreements like the Paris Accord.
2. Multilateral Platforms:
- Forums like BRICS, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), and G20 provide avenues for collaboration on global issues.
3. Trade Potential:
- Expanding trade beyond traditional goods into emerging sectors like green energy technologies could benefit both economies.
Conclusion
India-China relations over the last decade have been marked by significant shifts driven by geopolitical tensions, economic competition, and strategic rivalries. While cooperation exists in areas like trade and climate change, unresolved border disputes and China's growing influence in South Asia continue to challenge bilateral ties. As both nations navigate an increasingly multipolar world order, their relationship will likely oscillate between collaboration and confrontation depending on mutual interests and global developments.
