Fresh SSB batches starting 19th July. Referred articles were published in The Hindu.
1. Rethinking Reinforced One-Front War Concept
- India's Geopolitical Strategy:
- Concerns: India worries about the deep-seated security partnership between China and Pakistan.
- Proposed Solution: A "reinforced one-front war" scenario against China, even if Pakistan opens another front.
- Strategy Elements: Diplomatic shielding, intelligence sharing, military elements, technology integration, multi-domain integration, cyber security, and economic intelligence.
- Goal: India to be a strategic enabler on China's Western front, turning Pakistan's challenge into a more formidable, integrated threat.
- Challenges and Implications of a Two-Front War:
- Current Readiness: The current almost a truism that at first glance, India's support for Pakistan is undoubtedly real, sustained, and strategically motivated.
- Risks: Misread Beijing's intentions and distort India's own strategic calculus.
- India's Current Posture:
- "One Front" Focus: India continues to prepare for a "one front" war, primarily against Pakistan.
- Military Procurement: Significant purchases of US $35 billion potential military aid to Pakistan, India's exploration of Russia SU-57, and acquisition of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines.
- Regional Arms Race: South Asia is a major buyer of Russian, Israeli, American, and French military systems.
- China's Role and Strategy:
- Strategic Deception: China's support to Pakistan may mask its true intentions, potentially setting a trap for India.
- Economic Aid: China provided direct military support to Pakistan during operations against India.
- International Alliances: China, Russia, Israel, and France are increasingly involved in BrahMos missile programs in the Philippines.
- Challenges for India:
- Denial of China-Pakistan Collusion: India struggles to acknowledge the deep military and strategic cooperation between China and Pakistan.
- Operational Integration: India's current military posture does not exist, encouraging lower-level military measures that may be unaffordable or strategically rigid.
- Escalation Control: India's ability to limit escalation could be challenged, particularly if China joins the conflict.
- Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Over-rating China's level in India may create a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading to further miscalculations.
- Key Insight: India's analyses must see if what is a complex, asymmetric partnership in which China tempts Pakistan to be a tamer-local rival without assuming the costs and risks of fighting India itself.
2. Share of Clean Energy in Electricity Still Below 30%- India's Renewable Energy Progress:
- Milestone: India has achieved a milestone of 50% of its electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, five years ahead of the target set under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
- Capacity: India's non-fossil fuel capacity stands at 484 gigawatts, with renewable energy accounting for the bulk.
- Energy Mix Challenges:
- Actual Electricity Supply: The actual share of clean energy in the electricity supplied is below 30%.
- Capacity vs. Supply: Despite high installed capacity, actual generation remains limited due to the "capacity utilisation factor" (CUF), a measure of how much available energy is usable.
- Source Contribution:
- Renewable (small and large hydro, wind, biomass, solar): Contributed about 30% of India's installed electricity capacity as of June 30, 2025.
- Solar CUF: Approximately 20% and wind 25-30%, compared to coal's 60% or nuclear's 80%.
- Improving Grid and Battery Storage:
- Importance: Grid and improved battery storage are crucial for higher utilization of clean energy, especially during peak demand.
- Time-of-Day Tariffs: Policy changes like time-of-day tariffs are needed to incentivize energy storage and management.
- Hybrid Projects: An increase in 'hybrid' power projects combining solar, wind, hydro, and storage elements is needed for India's growing peak and round-the-clock power needs.
- Battery Storage: Batteries can store surplus energy and release it during peak demand hours.
- Coal Dependence:
- Dominance: Coal-based load demand or power generation is largely provided by coal, which makes up about 75% of India's energy mix.
3. Some Cheer- India's Trade Performance (Q1 FY26):
- Exports:
- June merchandise trade saw the sharpest uptick in outbound shipments.
- Value: Up 23.5% to $8.3 billion in June.
- Overall Goods Exports: Stayed flat at $35.14 billion in June.
- Key Export Categories (Q1 FY26):
- Electronic goods: 46.9%
- Tea: 33.6%
- Meat, dairy, and poultry: 19.7%
- Marine products: 13.3%
- Imports:
- Oil Imports: Slightly up 1.92% at $112.17 billion in June.
- Overall Goods Imports: Excluded in petroleum and gems and jewellery were almost flat in the same period.
- Trade Deficit:
- Merchandise Trade Deficit: Deepened to $67.26 billion (Q1 FY25: $52.1 billion).
- Services Exports: Up almost 4% to $98.13 billion (Q1 FY25: $88.46 billion).
- Overall Trade Deficit: Has shrunk by 9% in Q1 FY26.
- Diversifying Energy Sources:
- Rationale: To keep the trade deficit low.
- Impact of Russian Crude: Buying Russian crude has helped India leverage its cost arbitrage as Western European nations maintain a ban on Russian crude imports.
- Future Strategy: Diversifying energy imports, increasing green energy use, and supporting ramp-up renewables.
- Trade Policy and Geopolitical Factors:
- US President Trump's Threat: Threatens a 100% "secondary tariff" on countries buying Russian crude.
- India-China Trade: India needs to overcome its reliance on China, which forms 36% of its oil imports.
- Bilateral Trade Agreement: A Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US is important to cut down on the trade deficit.
- Export Share: Overall exports constituted the largest share of India's overall exports in the last fiscal alone.
4. Safe Havens No More- Prevalence of Sexual Violence:
- Increase: Sexual violence in workplaces and educational institutions in India is rising.
- Geographic Scope: Incidents reported from Odisha to Karnataka, Bengal to Delhi.
- Specific Cases Highlighted:
- Odisha (Pakur Mohan Autonomous College): A 20-year-old student, B.A. Lasore, suffered a 90% burn injury after being sexually assaulted by a teacher and principal.
- Bengal (R.G. Kar Medical College Hospital, 2024): A post-graduate student was gang-raped on campus.
- Mangaluru: Two lecturers arrested for the alleged rape of a student in June.
- Delhi: A nine-year-old girl's rape and murder led to public outcry.
- Legal Framework and Enforcement:
- POSH Act (2013): The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace Act, 2013, mandates Internal Complaint Committees (ICCs) in all colleges.
- Reporting Requirements: ICCs must form committees within 24 hours after a tragic death.
- Lack of Accountability: Questions are being raised about the manner in which the system failed the student and the lack of accountability.
- Crime Statistics (NCRB):
- Total Cases (2023): 4,45,256 cases of crimes against women were registered.
- Increase: An increase of 4% over 2021.
- Categories of Violence:
- Cruelty by husband or his relatives: 31.4%
- Assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty: 18.7%
- Rape: 7.1%
- Underreporting and Impunity:
- Hidden Figures: Many cases go unreported as well.
- Perpetrators: Concerns about the role of perpetrators, especially when protectors turn predators.
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